Luxembourg Cannot Assume Security by Default

This week, ESILUX President and Executive Director Josip Glaurdić spoke with the Luxemburger Wort about a question that until recently would have seemed almost unthinkable in mainstream European debate: what would happen to Luxembourg - and to Europe - if the United States withdrew from NATO? The discussion formed part of a broader public debate emerging across Europe as concerns intensify over the long-term reliability of American security guarantees and the future cohesion of the transatlantic alliance.

In the interview, Prof. Glaurdić argued that Luxembourg’s prosperity and political stability cannot be separated from the wider security architecture that emerged in Europe after 1945. Luxembourg’s economic model, its attractiveness to international institutions and investors, and even its role as a diplomatic and financial hub have all depended on a broader geopolitical environment characterized by predictability, open markets, and credible collective security guarantees.

Why NATO Matters for Luxembourg

The possibility of a reduced American role in Europe therefore raises questions that extend far beyond military planning alone. While Luxembourg itself is not a major military power, it is deeply integrated into European and transatlantic structures whose credibility ultimately depends on deterrence, institutional coordination, and strategic trust. A weakening of NATO would not simply create abstract geopolitical uncertainty. It could directly affect Europe’s economic confidence, political cohesion, and capacity to respond collectively to crises.

The interview took place against the backdrop of increasingly intense debate over the future of NATO and Europe’s strategic dependence on the United States. Recent announcements regarding reductions of American troop deployments in Europe, combined with renewed political rhetoric questioning the value of the alliance, have accelerated concerns across European capitals about whether Europe is adequately prepared for a world in which American strategic priorities shift elsewhere.

Within this context, Dr Glaurdić emphasized that European states - and especially smaller states such as Luxembourg - cannot afford to treat security as an automatic or permanent condition. The post-Cold War assumption that Europe exists in a fundamentally stable environment is increasingly difficult to sustain. Russia’s war against Ukraine, growing geopolitical fragmentation, economic coercion, cyber threats, and broader instability in the international system all point toward a more contested era in which questions of defence, resilience, and strategic autonomy are becoming central political issues once again.

Rethinking European Security

At the same time, the interview stressed that discussions about European strategic autonomy should not be understood simply as calls for replacing NATO or severing transatlantic ties. Rather, they reflect a recognition that Europe must develop greater capacity to act collectively and sustain its own security architecture if the international environment becomes more volatile or American engagement becomes less predictable. Debates that once appeared theoretical - concerning European defence coordination, defence industrial capacity, or the long-term sustainability of the Atlantic alliance - are increasingly moving into the political mainstream.

For Luxembourg specifically, these debates carry particular significance because the country’s influence has historically rested less on military size than on its ability to operate successfully within stable multilateral frameworks. Luxembourg’s diplomatic model presupposes functioning international institutions, reliable alliances, and a broader environment in which small states can rely on rules rather than raw power. If those assumptions weaken, the implications would extend well beyond foreign policy alone.

The broader message of the interview was therefore not one of alarmism, but of strategic realism. Europe is entering a period in which assumptions that shaped the continent for decades can no longer simply be taken for granted. For ESILUX, this is precisely why long-term strategic thinking matters. Questions concerning NATO, European defence, geopolitical fragmentation, and the resilience of democratic societies are no longer distant or abstract issues. They increasingly shape the political and economic conditions under which Luxembourg and Europe operate.

The Luxemburger Wort interview, later republished by Luxembourg Times under the headline “Why a US withdrawal from NATO would be devastating for Luxembourg,” forms part of ESILUX’s broader effort to contribute evidence-based analysis to debates about Europe’s strategic future and the evolving international order.

Photo Credit: NATO.