Luxembourg’s Security in an Age of Geopolitical Uncertainty

ESILUX President Josip Glaurdić spoke to RTL Luxembourg about how the Luxembourgish public and the country’s foreign-policy community perceive a rapidly changing international environment. Drawing on the findings of the Luxsentinel 2026 report, he discussed declining confidence in the United States, Europe’s response to the war in Ukraine, and what Luxembourg can do to strengthen its own security.

ESILUX President and University of Luxembourg political scientist Josip Glaurdić was interviewed by RTL journalist Cédric Ferry for a two-part feature examining the findings and implications of the Luxsentinel 2026 report. The conversation addressed how experts and the wider public in Luxembourg perceive contemporary geopolitical threats, what these perceptions reveal about European security, and how Luxembourg should respond.

The first part of the interview focused on the contrasting ways in which experts and members of the public understand insecurity. Experts tend to place greater emphasis on systemic threats, particularly the erosion of the rules-based international order and the growth of hybrid threats. Members of the public are more concerned with dangers that appear immediate and tangible, including war, terrorism and rising energy prices.

Glaurdić argued that these perspectives are not contradictory. The wars and economic pressures experienced by citizens are closely connected to the weakening of the international norms and institutions highlighted by experts. One of the principal tasks facing political leaders is therefore to explain more clearly how changes in the international system affect citizens’ everyday lives.

The interview also examined the increasingly ambiguous position of the United States. Luxsentinel found considerable disagreement among both experts and the public over whether the United States should still be regarded as an ally. Although many respondents continue to see it as such, others now consider it an adversarial actor. This polarisation leaves the United States close to the midpoint of the ally-adversary scale.

Glaurdić stressed that Europe should seek to preserve the transatlantic partnership, but can no longer treat American support as an unconditional security guarantee. European security should not depend on the outcome of what has effectively become a political coin toss every four years in the United States. Europe remains particularly dependent on American intelligence capabilities, strategic military assets and nuclear protection. Greater defence spending is necessary, but it must be accompanied by the development of a credible European capacity to act, whether through the European Union or through a genuinely European pillar within NATO.

The discussion also turned to Ukraine. Glaurdić argued that Europe’s central mistake has been to provide Ukraine with enough assistance to prevent defeat, but not enough to make victory possible. This has contributed to a prolonged war of attrition that is increasingly difficult to sustain politically. European leaders should explain more clearly that the outcome of the war will determine the future of the continent’s security order. If territorial conquest and mass violence are ultimately rewarded, the strategic calculations of all states on Europe’s eastern frontier will change.

The second part of the interview considered what Luxembourg can do to protect its interests as a small and highly exposed state. Glaurdić noted that Luxembourg cannot exercise influence through the conventional instruments available to larger powers. It can, however, make disproportionate contributions in carefully selected areas. Its investments in space, satellite technologies, cybersecurity and data infrastructure provide a useful model of how a small state can develop strategically important capabilities.

Luxembourg should also take a more active role in promoting a Europe capable of making and implementing foreign-policy decisions. Its prosperity and sovereignty ultimately depend on a stable European order governed by rules that protect smaller states from coercion. This requires deeper European integration, more effective decision-making and an approach to enlargement that combines geopolitical purpose with established accession criteria. If unanimity continues to prevent action, differentiated integration among willing member states may offer the most realistic way forward.

Finally, the interview addressed the relationship between defence expenditure and social cohesion. Luxsentinel shows that both experts and the public are concerned about inequality, pressure on public finances and the affordability of everyday life. Glaurdić warned that citizens cannot be expected to support greater defence spending if they are simultaneously asked to accept the erosion of the social protections on which they depend. A sustainable security policy therefore requires more than military capabilities. It also requires an economic and political system that citizens regard as fair - and consequently as worth defending.